George Friedman, an influential contemporary thinker, aptly observes that the modern geopolitical realm changes after every twenty years. As history witnessed the European ascendency completed by the end of 19th century. In the 1920s Russian Austro-Hungarian, German and Ottoman empires were all but gone. Peripheral powers like the US and Japan then came into their own. The end of First World War saw the death of Hitler; subsequently, a defeated Germany. The 1950s made us witness the sun finally had set on the victorious Britain, which was confined to an island. This led to the beginning of American power, which was unthinkable to assail.
The geopolitical dimension further changed the 1980s and 90s bringing globalisation into the picture. The Soviet Union became history and the Berlin Wall came crashing down, while China moves on an unprecedented direction. However, the 9/11 incident has made the world topsy-turvy and shocked America out of its wits. Subsequently, this has led to the twilight of globalisation, further enhancing the importance of transnationalism and regional connectivity.
A new phase has just begun in the geopolitical landscape of the world; through the incumbent president Donald Trump. This currently has made the world fragile and prone to travesty. However, the present framework has provided Beijing with a lot of playing field to materialise its dream of regional connectivity via OBOR.
The withdrawal of America from trans-pacific partnership has opened many realms for future regional realignments. Countries like Japan, India, Vietnam, Australia and Singapore are considering greater regional security and an economic coalition to curb Chinese influence in the region. Other regions like Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia are also considering new avenues for regional cooperation.
The changing domains appropriately play in the hand of Beijing to pursue the growth of Chinese One Belt One Road initiative. The notion of OBOR holds connectivity paramount in the emerging geopolitical great game of the region. It will undoubtedly have parallel geostrategic implications not only for Beijing but, also for its all-weather friend, Pakistan. It would further stimulate regional awakenings through perpetual economic growth; a new currency in the new world order.
This is a prime time for Islamabad to review its narrative of regional consciousness. Currently, Islamabad is part of two major regional alliances, Shanghai Cooperation Organization and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. However, sadly, regional proximity can be said as the only uniting factor in otherwise turbulent Asia with a redundant concept of South Asianners. This can be further elucidated by the fact that New Delhi is trying to sabotage SAARC, notwithstanding that SAARC is a non-political forum. Now more or less, SAARC is history, Islamabad must explore new avenues for regional cooperation.
CPEC as a part of OBOR provides a prodigious opportunity for Islamabad to forge regional and bilateral ties with South Asia and the Middle East. To gain maximum advantage from CPEC and more political uplift, Islamabad needs to promote cooperation among Arabian Sea nations paramount among them should be Iran.
It’s high time that Pakistan’s elite grows itself from its obscure obsession of South Asianess and conform to the changing geopolitical arena. Islamabad should maintain a cordial relationship with Tehran and forge deep economic ties. In the meanwhile, however, bilateral relationships should be maintained with US, Europe and the rest of the world while prioritising regional connectivity and supplement it with appropriate policies.
Regional and International players; its Geostrategic implications
The economic potential of CPEC is colossal and could impact the fate of regional states in an inclusive manner. CPEC provides prodigious openings for regional states to connect and integrate, however, divergent and conflicting interests of regional actors have made the construction of CPEC ambiguous and strenuous process.
India
New Delhi’s fallacious claims of CPEC being used by Islamabad to counter the Indo-US strategic engagement is way too outrageous to comprehend. This has led to the Modi’s fascist government to team CPEC and related developments unacceptable. Gwadar Port is erroneously perceived by New Delhi to serve as a naval base for Chinese blue fleet rather than a vibrant economic hub. Furthermore, New Delhi is sponsoring terrorist activities in Pakistan, especially Baluchistan, to spread anarchy and to impede the construction of CPEC. This conjecture turned into reality after the arrest of Indian spy Kulboshan Yadav. The nexus of RAW and NDS has been identified by Civil-Military leadership for the Genesis of unrest and disability in Balochistan. For India, CPEC would mean China’s ascendancy in the region, which has led India to expedite work on Iranian port i.e. Chahbahar.
Afghanistan
For a landlocked country like Afghanistan, the lure of warm waters is a way to alluring to forgo, further ramping up the importance of geostrategically placed CPEC. In order to link up Afghanistan with CPEC, Islamabad has pledged the construction of two hundred and fifty km Peshawar-Kabul motorway, allowing Kabul access to the Indian Ocean for economic and commercial activities. The western alignment of the corridor runs through Khuzdar to Gwadar and finally reaches Islamabad via D.I Khan, an additional link would be established through Chaman. However, RAW-NDS nexus uses Afghan soil for nefarious activities against Pakistan is a major catalyst in creating apprehensions against Kabul. Islamabad envisages a peaceful and prosperous Afghanistan and comradeship with its neighbour. Meanwhile, the above-mentioned factors could prove detrimental for regional Economic Integration. Kabul should understand the importance and ever increasing prospects of CPEC and should not allow its soil for disruptive activities Pakistan.
Iran
Iran was officially apprehensive about CPEC, as it perceived the venture as direct competition to Chahbahar port. However, in September 2015 weighing in the massive opportunities for cooperation in CPEC, Iran eluded to participate which would help both countries to expand trade and transportation and improve connectivity through road and railway.
Pakistan and Iran should outline the strategy for Chahbahar-Gwadar should also work on the proposed sister port status of Gwadar and Chahbahar. This would enhance connectivity in the region and would multiply cooperation on border trade ferry services and shipping lanes. Other proposed ventures such as the IP Pipeline and Iran –Pakistan 1000 MW electricity project should get a nod.
United States
Unlike common perception, United States did not oppose the creation of CPEC. It is commonly believed that CPEC would accrue prodigious economic benefits, which is an essential element to creating political stability and eradicate socioeconomic menace in the society. However, the United States cannot totally remain unconcerned by the strategic ramifications of CPEC.
The establishment of Gwadar port as an international economic hub may face opposition from the USA, as it would increase the subsequent Chinese influence in the region. To counter this growing influence of China, USA has given its own version of the New Silk Road, seeking to enlarge its control over the rapidly growing central Asian states and undermine the effects of the Eurasian triangle (Iran, Russia, China). Instead of viewing China as competition and counterweighing it through India, USA should accept China’s ascendancy as an economic spearhead in the region.
Conclusion
CPEC would certainly help Pakistan make a turnaround in its economic riches. However, for that to be a reality Pakistan must ensure a quick completion of projects and proficiently provided security. Furthermore, Pakistan can make CPEC a reality through national consensus and by resisting foreign powers creating anarchy in the region through their malicious endeavours.